Posts Tagged ‘Jamal’

Browns v. Titans

December 8, 2008

Overall thoughts:

While the Titans are clearly a much better team than the Browns, I think, the score doesn’t accurately represent how close of a game this should have been.  The primary reason for this discrepancy was Crennel’s lack of aggressiveness in trying to win the game. 

In a theory more fully articulated by Greg Easterbrook, (ESPN writer), he speaks of the lack of aggressiveness NFL coaches have in going for it on 4th and less than 5 in between your 40 and the opponents 35.  His assertion, and backed with statistics rests on the fact that: 1) Teams convert about 40% of the time in these situations 2) Coaches of teams that do go for it on these situations have better records 3) going for it in these situations sends a message to the offense that you believe they can convert 4) going for it in these situations sends a message to your defense that you believe they can stop the opponent 5) Teams with bad defenses should go for it more often than teams with good defenses  – field position means less if you have a harder time stopping the other team (e.g. if you’re playing the Patriots last year and you have a bad defense, chances are they’re going to score anyway, therefore, you should maximize your opportunities with the ball) 6. Your playing calling on downs 1-3 would change (3rd and 7 is no longer a “passing down”, and thus a draw or 3 step drop which makes it 4th and less than 5 still gives you a good chance at converting  the 1st down. 7) Bad offenses benefit more than good ones do as an average of 2.6 yards per play is required for a first down, as opposed to 3.4.

As mentioned in previous posts, Crennel, unlike his mentor Belicheck, is extremely conservative, and hardly every goes for it in these situations.  I vowed never to judge decisions based on actual results (which is unknown at the time), and instead judging them an expected results, but will provide the results of this consequences of the lack of aggressiveness below. 

To explain this theory in a brief way, here’s an example: I have a bag with 100 balls in them.  70 of them are worth $100, the other 30, result in you losing $5.  Would you play this game?  Most people would answer “yes”.  If then, you pulled out a ball, and got one that said you lose $5, did you make the wrong decision to play the game?  By judging the decision with an expected value of $68.5 (7*100)-(.3*-5), you made the correct choice by playing the game, regardless of getting a bad result.  Said differently, if you had another opportunity to play the game, it’s likely that you’d play again.

Below recaps the wrong decisions made by the Browns staff, and the results.  Further, a 4-8 team with a coach trying to win to save his job (more on this later) should be more aggressive than an 11-1 team looking to make it into the playoffs healthy.  Regardless, the decision is wrong regardless of result.  I also want to point out, Zastudil, a top 5 punter in the league, had a horrible game.  Yet, the lack of aggressiveness can’t be blamed on him

1)      In the 2nd offensive drive, the Browns had the ball on the Titans 37 yard line, and punted on 4th and 4.

a.       Result – touchback à next play interception by D’Qwell (actually a positive result, but I don’t think you can credit the Browns for knowing that D’Qwell would get a pick)

2)       4th and 3 (right after Ten TD) on Ten 44 yard line

a.       23 yard punt, Tennessee starts with the ball on their own 21 yard line

3)       4th and 7 on the Titans 48 (this is outside the 4th and 5 creed, but the Browns were down 15 at this point in the game, and still 4-8 with a coach that is probably going to get fired if he doesn’t win out

a.       Punt results in touchback –

b.      Eric Wright recovers fumble forced by Corey Williams.  (again, I don’t think the Browns saw this as a predictable result

4)      4th and 10 on the 26 (again outside of 4th and 5 mantra), but you have to imagine that if the Browns had viewed this as 4 down territory, the 3rd and 10 call may have been different)

a.       Missed FG (Dawson is having an incredible season regardless of this miss)

5)      4th and 1 from the 37 – Up the middle to Vickers resulting in 1st down

6)      (same drive, beginning of 4th quarter) 4th and 9 from the 22 – down 21-6 at this point, still 4-8.  Again, a 4 down territory view of this possession may have made for a different play call on 3rd and 9.  This FG still left the Browns down two TDs

a.       FG good

7)      4th and 1 from own 24 (less than 9 minutes to play).  This is the ultimate in “I give up” by the Browns.  Not surprisingly, so did the special teams on the punt return and the defense on the next play

a.       Punt – returned 44 yards

b.      Next play TD

Conversely, Fisher went for it (with a play action pass) on 4th and 1, down 6 on the Browns 28.  Result, 28 yard TD.  I’m guessing the browns kick the field goal there.  To be fair, Fisher didn’t go for it on 4th and 1 from their own 41, but they were up 15 points at the time, and the Browns offense showed very little ability moving the ball.  Thus, punting is the correct decision.  Fisher also went for it on 4th and 2 from the Browns 6.  I’d argue there’s not just correlation between their record and his aggressiveness in 4th down play calling.

Now on to recaps:

QB

Hard to judge Dorsey in this game.  Pass blocking was atrocious, and not having Winslow certainly hurts.  I was impressed by his accuracy on short passes, but he missed some opportunities to hit Edwards deep.  Also, I loved the fact that he was able to call plays from the LOS, something Anderson is incapable of doing, and normally costs the Browns 10 seconds per play.  All in all, he’s probably a really good 3rd QB.  Able to start a game or two if need be because he’s smart enough to pick up the offense in a week.

RB

Impossible to judge this group.  They were unable to get any momentum going forward in this game as the Browns OL was destroyed (more on this below.  When your RBs carry the ball 13 times for 11 yards and one of them is a 5 yard gain, it’s not their fault.  The “Flash” formation worked well however as Cribbs went 6 carries for 24 yards.  Although calling the same play 3 times in a row hardly works

WR

Braylon again showed why he’s a great receiver in this game.  He’s very good at getting open on slants, and deep routes.  He dominated Nick Harper in this game, and he also blocks really well. He got his hand on one pass that he didn’t bring down, but he was the lone threat in the game on the Browns O.  One issue, I feel like he runs only 4 routes: 3 yard slant, 7 yard slant, 15 yard in, and a go route.  Some variability is needed to get open.  Likewise, Stallworth’s only catches seem to be on drag routes, and occasionally a deep ball will be thrown to him.  I feel like Chud uses a variety of formations to mask similar routes for his players.  Steptoe asked to block repeatedly again.  I have no idea what game film Chud’s watching when he decides it’s a good idea to do this again.

OL

Absolutely dominated by Ten.  Running game went nowhere, Dorsey spent every other pass play on his back or hurried.  I’m not sure what the issue was versus last year as this is the 8th game the group has played together (5th in a row).  Shaffer is clearly worse than tucker at RT.

Chud

Above I mentioned the frequency of similar pass routes, but there’s another issue.  When Harrison is in the game, and the WR to the strong side starts coming in motion towards the OL, it’s a sweep to Harrison, or a pass play where the motion WR runs a drag.

In 3rd and 2-4 yards, Braylon will line up by himself on one side and run a slant when the opponent tends to play man coverage.  Against teams that play zone, Winslow will be on his side and the two will run a slant/out combo route (Edwards with the slant).

In short yardage situations, and Vicker’s healthy, he gets the ball on a dive (I don’t remember a play action from this recently)

Defense

Actually played pretty well, and forced a bunch of turnovers.  The running defense can’t really be blamed since 1) this is the 2nd best running team in the league 2) We’re starting Shaun Smith, 3) The law firm plays a lot 3) McGinnest is horrible and holding contain 4) Alex Hall gets destroyed in running plays

DL

Rodgers is having a difficult time as teams realize he’s the real threat on the DL.  Williams played well, and just recently it’s surfaced that he’s been fighting a shoulder injury that could require surgery since week 3. 

LB

D’Qwell needs to be in the pro-bowl.  This was his coming out game, lost by the fact that the Browns offense didn’t win the game.  2 picks and almost a 3rd.  He had 12 solo tackles despite getting very little help from the DL in keeping blockers off of him.  To put this in perspective, the difference between the number of tackles he and Andra Davis have (62) versus NE (28 tackle difference between their ILBs) Pit (approx. 35 tackles as they rotate their ILBs more), Sand Diego (at best 15), SF (35) is dramatic. 

DBs

Not much to evaluate here, as it was so easy to run on the Browns that passing wasn’t a priority for the Titans.  Pool fell too hard for the play fake on 4th and 1, and Jones repeatedly did this.  Some bad angles on trying to catch Chris Johnson, but he’s probably the fastest RB in the league, so that’s expected.  Most of the time Johnson got to the outside, it was the OLB’s fault, not the DBs.

 

Browns v. Giants Week 6

October 14, 2008

Injuries

TE/WR:  Jurevicious, Winslow

OL: Shaffer

LB: Peak

DB: Holly, Jones

DL: R. Smith, S. Smith

I think Beau Bell is back, but didn’t see him on the field at all.

 

Overall recap:

It’s amazing what getting close to the starting offensive line, and your #2 WR does for an offense.  Tucker was incredible in pass protection, and he and Hadnot made running to the right side as effective as running left.  Heiden was very effective in Winslow’s role, especially in blocking on running plays.  Stallworth drew the attention of the defense.  Despite an obscene amount of penalties, the offense looked very good.  In addition, Cribbs was finally healthy, which allowed the offense to be a little more adventurous.

On the defensive side, the DB’s looked great in tackling WRs and made some very good reads.  However, the team has a huge issue in guarding #3 receivers (Cousins can’t stay with anyone) which is why the Holly injury was enormous.  In addition, the Browns better pray that Shaun Smith comes back, because his back-ups Lenard, Thomas, and Rubin (not a bad law firm name), were atrocious.

Also keep in mind that Eli is nowhere near the QB that Peyton is, despite what the announcers says.  He’s an above average QB who has a tendency to throw off target passes, and not look off coverage (see Pools’, and Wright’s INTs.

QB

This was a great game for Anderson, and an ideal opponent.  The Giants like blitzing, and playing man to man behind it.  Anderson has a good arm, and can read whether or not a guy is open in man coverage pretty well.  I’m shocked that the Giants continued to blitz and play man coverage despite little or no success in doing it. 

RB

Lewis gets and deserves a lot of press for his running, but the real key to the passing game on Monday was Wright’s ability to pick up blitzes and Harrison’s hands out of the backfield.

WR/TE

Braylon played like he’s able.  He dominated smaller DBs, and made the catches that he’s supposed to.  Stallworth provided a decent 2nd threat, but more importantly, he’s actually a very good blocker.  As mentioned above, Heiden blocked well, but isn’t the receiving threat that Winlsow is.  Dinkins needs to be cut as soon as Rucker gets back.  Yes he caught at TD, but he also dropped two catchable balls and isn’t a great blocker

OL

This was a coming out party for the OL.  They won this game hands down.  They manhandled the Giants on running plays, and stopped just about every blitz in its tracks.  It will be interesting to see what happens when Shaffer returns from injury (they obviously can’t replace Tucker, but I’m not sure if Shaffer is better than Hadnot).  On Monday, Hadnot looked great.  One other comment, Fraley is exceptional in getting downfield and making blocks.  One knock on the team’s best lineman, Joe Thomas, is that if he hustled more on Harrison’s reverse, it would have been a TD.  That’s nitpicking, but there weren’t a lot of flaws with this group.

DL
This is an enormous problem.  Williams and Rodgers played well, but the aforementioned law firm of Lenard, Thomas and Rubin were horrible.  Routinely they were getting blocked at least 5 yards down field.  Granted were talking about 3 guys that shouldn’t be playing more than a combined 10 snaps a game.  This is the teams 5th, 6th, and 7th DL.  Normally, 3-4 teams only carry 6 guys.  Their background, if you’re not aware is: a guy that was cut from the Rams (Lenard), a 7th round draft pick this year (Rubin), and I don’t know anything about Thomas.  Basically, these guys need to learn how to get on the ground when they’re being blocked this well, because it cuts off LB pursuit.

LBs

Measuring the LBs success when the DL lineman are in your face is tough. . . More of what was said before can be said again.  They appear to be good tacklers, although D’Qwell needs to bulk up a little more to take on guards and people like Brandon Jacobs.  Pass rush from this group was non-existant.  McGinnest made his one good play of the day (kind of, he didn’t wrap up), but as usual, was more of a detriment than a benefit.  Hall looked good in pass rush, but needs to put on weight this offseason to replace Willie full time in pass rush situations

DBs

Can’t say enough about how well these guys tackled.  McDonald was a steal in the 5th round, and somehow plays better against bigger guys than he does against small ones.  Wright looked good in coverage, and made a great move on Eli to take the INT for a TD.  Pool is definitely the safety to keep this offseason (letting Jones go).  As mentioned before, he’s great in coverage, and good enough against the run.   Not having a 3rd CB is an issue.  Teams that can put a good 3rd WR on the field will kill the browns, and there’s really no immediate solution to this.

Coaching:

All in all a good game by the staff.  No major clock management issues by Crennel, but the offensive penalties need to stop.  Chud called a great offensive game, and I’m sure he was the happiest person in the stadium to have Tucker and Stallworth back.  The defense was aggressive, and learned how to time their blitzes better in the 2nd half than in the 1st half (and most of the season)

 

Drive by drive recaps below:

 

First offensive drive

                Braylon looked good – with a great stiff arm.  You can tell not all of his speed is back.  Tucker is blocking much better than Shaffer both on runs and passes.  Anderson can’t read a zone near the goal line, which isn’t new.  Lewis is running hard, again, not surprising.  Got to stop jumping offside

First defensive drive

                Why McGinnest was on a stunt shocks me.  It’s moving a liability on the end to the middle.  Not surprisingly it did nothing.  Next play he waves at a ball in coverage.  Not sure why he’s dropping in coverage, he sucks at doing that.   Pool made a great read on the INT, and an even better play on the ball.

 

2nd offensive Drive

                Great block by Thomas freed Cribbs on the wildcat formation.  Lewis is relatively nimble on his catch in open space.  It looked like Giants knew what was coming on the first unbalanced line, they were ready for the run.  Steinbach did a great job on a trap block, but that’s expected from him. Got to stop jumping offside.  I think the giants saw the WR screen coming, and Heiden was slow coming out on the block (winslow probably would have gotten there).  Again, a healthy Cribbs makes a lot of difference.  I also don’t get why the giants are staying in man coverage, as opposed to playing zone. Tucker is much better than Shaffer in pass blocking

2nd defensive drive

                Very good coverage by Adams on a tough to guy to guard, TE Boss.  Giants just realized that the browns are starting their #5 defensive lineman, and got a pancake.   Great route by S. Smith, beat McDonald, he seems to struggle with quicker guys.  Again, giants going at LDE, who was blocked 8 yards down field.

3rd offensive drive

                Great slant go route by Braylon.  Then the Browns don’t get the bext play off, maybe they were in shock.  Not new, but Anderson doesn’t look, he just assumes people are open (jump pass near end zone).  Lewis touchdown – thank god Tucker is back, Hadnot looks better with him

3rd defensive

                Great play by Wright in coverage breaking up pass to Plax.  Rodgers only guy who gets pressure, and the team needs to time blitzes better – it’s been an issue all year.  The Giants can make line calls when they see this, and Eli’s smart enough to make adjustments.  Again Rodgers is a beast (always been a great pass rusher)

4th offensive

                Vickers is not good at reading holes, but that’s not new.  Joe Thomas is great at run blocking, he doesn’t get enough credit for this.  Great catch by braylon on the slant.  Tucker’s pancake leads to 4 yard gain.  Interesting to see how much value Winslow is losing in this game.  He’s a huge asset in the red zone, but they seem to be replacing his game breaking threat with Stallworth, and Hieden takes the underneath stuff (switch from last year with Joe going underneath and Winslow going deep).  I know the Giants like to blitz on 3rd down, but they should just play zone against Anderson.

4th defensive

                No pressure from the line.  Jackson good taclker, needs to get stronger – as he tends to get dragged.  Why is Willie in coverage? To get holding penalties and still give up a completion.  That’s awesome.  Good blitz call, but I’m not sure why is Davis in on passing situations.  Should be Williams or  Jackson.  3rd receiver (Smith) should be covered by Holly, we don’t have anyone that can stay close.  Wright was beat (on break-up of pass near end zone), but made a great play.  Line gets no push when against no huddle – Rodgers gets tired.   Hall should be in on all pass situations actually got push, and doubled, which left Williams 1 on 1 (when Williams got sack).  Again, great tackling in secondary.  Why is Cousins guarding Plax on his TD catch?  I’d rather have him guard Toomer

2nd Half

1st defensive

                On Manning INT, Manning just said to Plaxico “thought you were doing one of these” (hand motion to post corner, not post) – from Necessary Roughness.  I’d give the ball back to have Pool not injured

1st offensive

                More success to the right than left, which is new.  Again great reverse play to Harrison, it’s nice to have a healthy Cribbs, this would have been a TD if Thomas didn’t let up towards the end, his guy made the tackle.  Lewis is big, angry, man who doesn’t like being tackled, and doesn’t cut that well (he should have followed Vickers). The goal line is where you miss Winslow/Joe – Stallworth isn’t the same type of threat in that situation. 

2nd defensive

                Lenard needs to learn how make a pile instead of getting pushed back 8 yards.  McDonald reads WR eyes incredibly well, he always puts his hands up at the right time.   Sorenson timed blitz well (if he’s in, 90% chance he blitzes).  Adams timed blitz well on run almost got Jacobs from the back.  Willie made his one play for the day – he’s done.  Rodgers out and the Giants run @ Williams, I don’t get this.  Hall needs in on all pass situations, he draws chip blocks from RBs.

2nd offensive

                Keeping up with quota of 1 procedure penalty per series.  Stallworth is a much better blocker than Steptoe.  Lewis is a big, angry man. There’s a reason why Dinkins will get cut when Rucker’s back (He can’t catch or block that well).  Chud is confident they can run, going run left on 3rd and 3.  That takes balls. Anderson better against blitz, still not sure why the Giants are coming at him.  The run blocking a lot better with Tucker.  These penalties are obscene – I can’t even put this into words .  Harrison is great out of the backfield, will be complete 3rd back when he learns how to block (Wright does a great job of this).  Giants bite hard on play fakes, great play by Anderson

3rd defensive

                Great blitz timing by Pool, Browns are doing a much better job than they’ve done all season on this.  Hard to stop Steve Smith, Adams can’t guard him – Daven Holly anyone? Browns secondary makes great tackles (Wright on Jacobs) (giving up 90 pounds.     Why is Travis Daniels guarding Plax on 3rd down?  And who is Travis Daniels.  Per Kornheiser (sp?) comment: the difference between Thomas (DL) and Rodgers is way more than just 60 pounds. That’s like saying the only difference between me and Alex Hall playing in the NFL is that he’s 60 lbs heavier than.   Great play again by Wright breaking on the ball, and a nice move on Manning to take it to the endzone.

4th defensive

                As bill simmons would say. . . we just saw “Eli Manning” face. Look for “completed in front of Sorenson” when he’s not blitzing. Brandon McDonald is the best corner on the team, Rodgers trade was a great move.  Bodden will be missed, but if Holly wasn’t hurt, this is an incredible secondary.  I’m surprised that Giants don’t go hurry up more often, since there’s such a huge gap of talent between Rodgers/Williams and the next DL.  They get tired quick, but probably much slower than most 300 and 360 lb people. 

4th offensive

                Lewis and the line are playing exceptional.  Starters should come out.

See this link as well: http://footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/one-man-audible-monday-night-football